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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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WNBA SUBSCRIPTIONS
WNBA Season Pass
**2015 WNBA Champion!**
**2x Top 10 WNBA handicapper!**

1-0 run in WNBA dating back to 05/19/22.

No picks available.

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 20, 2022
Mavs vs Warriors
UNDER 214½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight.  Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. 

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.  

DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Reds vs Blue Jays
Blue Jays
-159 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Cincinnati sends right-hander Luis Castillo (0-1, 5.59 ERA) to the hill on Friday against Toronto left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (0-0, 9.00). It will be Castillo's first career start against Toronto. CASTILLO is 2-9   against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Ryu has gone against the  Cincinnati Reds  seven times in his career (all starts), recording a  4-2 record along  with a 3.70 ERA. RYU is 57-19 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in his career. (Team's Record) Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.

CINCINNATI is 4-20  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Reds are 27-62 in their last 89 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Blue Jays hitters have not performed optimally of late, but Im expecting a break out performance today vs a hurler that my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggests does not match up well against them. 

Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on Toronto to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
A's vs Angels
A's
+159 at Ace
Won
$159
Play Type: Premium

Despite of alot of accolades and obvious talent Silseth the Halos starter today is still young and vulnerable. The Angels inexperienced hurler  will be matched up against A's right-hander Paul Blackburn (4-0, 1.67 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision against the Angels on Saturday. He gave up one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings.Blackburn has been Oakland's most consistent pitcher this season, giving up two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts.In two career starts vs. the Angels, Blackburn is 1-0 with an 0.68 ERA and deserves respect here on a value line. I know the As offense has been problematic so far, but that will eventually change as there are to many under rated on base options in this lineup for their fortunes not to change at some point. Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.OAKLAND is 15-8 against the money line in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.Athletics are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 games following an off day.

Play on Oakland As to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  May 20, 2022
Fever vs Sun
Fever
+14 -110 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 15 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends - In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Diamondbacks vs Cubs
Diamondbacks
+126 at Ace
Won
$126
Play Type: Premium

Dbacks starter Castellanos has not completed six innings in any of his six starts this season. However, he's 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA in three May starts and deserves respect here on a value line vs a inconsistent Cubs offense. I know Cubs starter  Hendricks has also pitched well but Im betting the Dbacks find just enough offense to slip by here and get us a victory as underdogs. 

Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. National League Central.

Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record

CHICAGO CUBS are 2-8  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11  against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

MLB  team (ARIZONA) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 50-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Diamondbacks vs Cubs
UNDER 11½ -120 Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

Arizona's scheduled Friday starter, Humberto Castellanos (2-1, 4.15 ERA).

Dback starting pitchers are 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in four games this season versus Chicago, which is batting .169 as a team against them.

Meanwhile, Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (2-3, 4.03 ERA) will look for a third straight strong outing when he takes to the hill today. Hendricks has yielded just one run over 14 1/3 innings of his last two appearances and is in top form entering this tilt. Hendricks is 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA in eight career starts against the Diamondbacks, including 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three outings at Wrigley Field.

Im expecting two solid hurlers and two inconsistent offenses to help keep this tilt on the low side of the total. 

ARIZONA is 10-1 UNDER  vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

CHICAGO CUBS are 13-3 UNDER  vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season this season.

MLB teams where the total is 11 or higher (ARIZONA) - after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 30-6 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 47-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.