Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight.  Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. 

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.  

DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Cincinnati sends right-hander Luis Castillo (0-1, 5.59 ERA) to the hill on Friday against Toronto left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (0-0, 9.00). It will be Castillo's first career start against Toronto. CASTILLO is 2-9   against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Ryu has gone against the  Cincinnati Reds  seven times in his career (all starts), recording a  4-2 record along  with a 3.70 ERA. RYU is 57-19 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in his career. (Team's Record) Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.

CINCINNATI is 4-20  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Reds are 27-62 in their last 89 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Blue Jays hitters have not performed optimally of late, but Im expecting a break out performance today vs a hurler that my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggests does not match up well against them. 

Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on Toronto to win 

Despite of alot of accolades and obvious talent Silseth the Halos starter today is still young and vulnerable. The Angels inexperienced hurler  will be matched up against A's right-hander Paul Blackburn (4-0, 1.67 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision against the Angels on Saturday. He gave up one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings.Blackburn has been Oakland's most consistent pitcher this season, giving up two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts.In two career starts vs. the Angels, Blackburn is 1-0 with an 0.68 ERA and deserves respect here on a value line. I know the As offense has been problematic so far, but that will eventually change as there are to many under rated on base options in this lineup for their fortunes not to change at some point. Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.OAKLAND is 15-8 against the money line in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.Athletics are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 games following an off day.

Play on Oakland As to win 

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 15 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends - In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Dbacks starter Castellanos has not completed six innings in any of his six starts this season. However, he's 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA in three May starts and deserves respect here on a value line vs a inconsistent Cubs offense. I know Cubs starter  Hendricks has also pitched well but Im betting the Dbacks find just enough offense to slip by here and get us a victory as underdogs. 

Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. National League Central.

Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record

CHICAGO CUBS are 2-8  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11  against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

MLB  team (ARIZONA) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 50-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

Arizona's scheduled Friday starter, Humberto Castellanos (2-1, 4.15 ERA).

Dback starting pitchers are 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in four games this season versus Chicago, which is batting .169 as a team against them.

Meanwhile, Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (2-3, 4.03 ERA) will look for a third straight strong outing when he takes to the hill today. Hendricks has yielded just one run over 14 1/3 innings of his last two appearances and is in top form entering this tilt. Hendricks is 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA in eight career starts against the Diamondbacks, including 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three outings at Wrigley Field.

Im expecting two solid hurlers and two inconsistent offenses to help keep this tilt on the low side of the total. 

ARIZONA is 10-1 UNDER  vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

CHICAGO CUBS are 13-3 UNDER  vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season this season.

MLB teams where the total is 11 or higher (ARIZONA) - after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 30-6 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 47-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER