*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Missouri State is 350th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Bears have seen 8 of 12 games in the conference stay under this total in regulation. All 8 of those have been 127 points or lower, so there has been some margin there as well.

Missouri State's biggest strength on offensive is their ability to get offensive rebounds. Valparaiso is the 24th best defensive rebounding team in the league. I think they can neutralize much of the Bears presence on the offensive glass.

Valparaiso is using up 18.3 seconds on an average possession in the league, so they have been slowing things down too. 

From an effective field goal percentage standpoint, both of these teams are better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are very good on defense in general. They are fantastic when playing on their home floor. Rutgers has a big home court advantage, and Steve Pikiell's team has been winning because of defense. Rutgers is 2nd in the nation (behind only Tennessee) in defensive efficiency. 

Minnesota has been without Dawson Garcia in their last two games, and he is questionable for this game. The Golden Gophers are averaging just 0.933 points per possession in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers are 296th in overall tempo, so they do slow the game down quite a bit.

Rutgers has been at their best defensively at home against quality competition. They have played seven top 100 teams at home so far this year. They have allowed more than 57 points in regulation only one time. That was Iowa who scored a lot on them, but Minnesota's offense is nothing like Iowa.

Rutgers is allowing just 0.79 points per possession at home against top 100 opponents. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 59-48. UNC Greensboro has been absolutely locking teams down with their defense of late. The Spartans are a really athletic team that plays great help defense. 

Mercer has been without Kamar Robertson the last couple games due to an injury and he is questionable here. Even with Robertson the offense is a big weakness and without him they are really bad. Mercer has been drastically slowing down their pace of late.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been a straight under team of late. You have to go back to December 3rd to find a Division One Wagner contest that finished with a total higher than 131 points. That is 11 straight games staying under this total against DI opponents. Wagner is second in the league in defense and second worst in offense. Their single huge weakness on defense is fouling too much, but Sacred Heart is bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

Sacred Heart is much better defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons. They do try to play quicker, but they aren't efficient on offense.

The first game finished 68-58. I think a total in the upper 120's would have made sense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has slipped a lot in Big Ten play. In fact, they are 14th in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. Their biggest problem is giving up far too many easy looks from 3 point range. 

Michigan is more than capable of nailing some shots from long range. Michigan was 10/22 from 3 point range in their 85-78 win over NW a few weeks ago. The Wolverines will try to push the pace here in this one as well.

Northwestern has a history of starting faster in the season and sliding late in the year under Chris Collins. The Wildcats defense is typically what has worsened during the year. We're seeing that pattern again this year. Boo Buie is a good leader on offense and the Wildcats should be able to get some good looks on offense. 

Take the over.