ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble.  Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State.  They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years.  They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin.  The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games.  He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard.  Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January.  The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play.  They are now 9-4.  Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12.  Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe.  The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record.  Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5.  So even their wins have come down to the wire.  The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14.  Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.    

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Capitals Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Montreal Canadiens, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Capitals are angry off back to back losses.  Only once this season have the Caps lost when they entered a game off consecutive losses.  Since that lone 3-game losing streak this season, Washington is a perfect 5-0 when they enter a game off back to back losses.  Of course it is not surprising to find out then that the Capitals are a very large money line favorite here.  Where value lies is with the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Caps we get plus money on the puck line in the +135 range.  Per our computer math model, this win will come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  The slumping Canadiens are off a loss at Detroit!  The Red Wings are the worst team in the league and the Habs let a 2-goal lead slip away in that one!  Montreal has lost 16 of their past 25 games and that includes 5 straight defeats entering this match-up at DC.  The Canadiens have allowed 4 goals per game in their last 10 defeats.  The Capitals have scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in their last 10 victories.  Look for the Caps to get to 4 or 5 goals here while Montreal - averaging just 2 goals per game in their last 7 games - continues to struggle to score goals. The final kicker is that the Capitals did lose at home to the Canadiens earlier this season.  They then got some revenge with a 4-2 win at Montreal in the next meeting but they still want payback for a rare home ice loss handed to them by the Habs here way back in November.  This one is forecast to be a home blowout Thursday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Washington is the value play here.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points.