ASA play on: Over 148 UT Arlington vs. Arkansas, Weds 9PM ET

This really could not set up any better than it does with the results of the games played thus far. Starting with Texas Arlington. UTA put up 151 total points against Northwestern State, 147 with Louisiana Tech and 143 with Oklahoma State. In the NWST game the two teams combined for 142 shot attempts which is 28 more FG attempts than last year's national average. Northwestern State also plays a similar style of play as Arkansas which is up-tempo, but UTA and NWST both shot poorly or that game ends with way more than 151 total points.  Against LA Tech, a slower paced team, the Mavericks also got 70 field goal attempts up but again didn’t shoot it as well, and the game still ended with 147 total points. UTA also faced Oklahoma State who was (slow) 238th in possessions per game last season and a top 90 team in terms of defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Mavs face an Arkansas team that was 49th in possessions per game a year ago which ranked 49th in the nation. The Hogs take just 14.5 seconds to get a shot up this season which is 20th fastest in college hoops. Arkansas is averaging 1.068 points per possession and have the 22nd best effective FG percentage in the country right now. Arkansas put up 142 points themselves in their opener but then played a slow and deliberate North Texas team which resulted in just 123 total points, 69 for Arkansas. North Texas though was 340th in possessions per game last year out of 353 schools so they got the tempo they wanted, and it led to an extremely low scoring game. Arkansas is very capable of putting up 85+ in this game and Arlington has enough capable scoring options to keep this close throughout. In the end it is 155 total points. 

#702 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

This is a terrible spot for San Francisco. They just played 4 games in 5 days in the east coast in Connecticut. Now they have to travel back to the west coast to face a Nevada team that has been at home since last Friday. San Fran played games last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then again on Sunday so they will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here. The Dons were 2-2 on their east coast trip but this line is sitting lower than it should be in our opinion because one of their wins was vs Virginia. They beat the Cavs 61-60 using an 8-0 run in the final 2:00 minutes. They caught UVA on a poor shooting night as they hit only 3 of 12 from beyond the arc (25%). That was the difference in the game as San Francisco mad 13 three pointers. We feel both results were aberrations as SF is not a great 3-point shooting team hitting only 33% on the year. Tonight they face a Nevada team that is 3-0 on the season including a solid win @ Nebraska last Thursday. They backed that up with a 12-point win at home vs Pacific team that finished 2 games ahead of San Francisco in the WCC last season. Nevada was favored by 5.5 in their game with Pacific and now just 2 facing San Francisco who is in a much worse situational spot than Pacific was when they faced the Wolfpack on Sunday. HC Steve Alford has Nevada playing terrific defense this year as they’ve held their 3 opponents (North Dakota St, Nebraska, and Pacific) to 48, 66, and 58 points respectively. They limit their opponents to only 0.94 PPP and their eFG% defense ranks 5th nationally. We also don’t anticipate SF going wild from 3-point range as they did vs UVA as Nevada allows only 24% from deep. Tired legs vs a top notch defense usually doesn’t equal success. We like Nevada in this game.

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